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Geomagnetic forecast, solar storm forecast

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As it is well known geomagnetic storms (solar storms) have a negative influence on the accuracy of the GNSS receiver on the micro-copter and other satellite navigation receivers.

Geomagnetic disturbance is measured by NOAA in US with a Kp scale. So far most people have used measurement of past time periods (time slots) as indication for current disturbance. NOAA also publish forecasted data. Note that there is no guarantee that forecast is correct. Actual Kp index may be higher or lower than forecasted. Use it after your own judgement.

The NOAA past and forecasted data can be confusing to read because they are published in separate data sets and uses UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).

externer Link:
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The GeomagForecast app makes it easy to read Kp data. It presents the past and forecasted data in one graph and uses your local time zone. GeomagForecast is Windows 32 bit application. It runs on Windows XP or newer Windows OS versions, 32 or 64 bit.

GeomagForecast app download

More general info about geomagnetic storm
« Bearbeitet von Foersom am 01.07.2017 13:20. »
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Hi Foersom,

thank you for this tool for Kp indices displays. I find it very easy to handle, it shows a good overview of the past and expected solar activities.

Maybe interesting also: the Icelandic Meteorological Office shows some space weather predictions based on Kp indices: http://en.vedur.is/weather/articles/nr/2550. They offer also a 2 week outlook, of course not as precise as a short time prediction.

Some more ideas about the Kp indices. These numbers quantify the solar particle flux, not the solar electromagnetic radiation (see e.g. http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/). During times with high Kp values, the probability of polar lights is increased. This makes the Kp values very interesting for me for my planned Iceland visit in autumn ;-)

Armin
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ArminW meinte
thank you for this tool for Kp indices displays. I find it very easy to handle, it shows a good overview of the past and expected solar activities.

Thanks.

ArminW meinte
Maybe interesting also: the Icelandic Meteorological Office shows some space weather predictions based on Kp indices: http://en.vedur.is/weather/articles/nr/2550. They offer also a 2 week outlook, of course not as precise as a short time prediction.

They are using another data set from NOAA, 27 day outlook, but that one is very uncertain. E.g. for yesterday (2017-07-02) it estimated Kp max 2 but in reality it was up to 5. I will see again later how precise the 27 day outlook is.
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Nice Foersom! Thanks for sharing :)

Groetjes
Peter
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Peter E meinte
Nice Foersom! Thanks for sharing :)

You are welcome.
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Release 1.2.0 of Geomag Forecast app includes graph with long outlook (27 days). This graph has one bar per day and displays the estimated max Kp for the day. Note that outlook so far ahead is much less accurate.

This feature was requested by ArminW.

externer Link:
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Download GeomagForecast, ver. 1.2.0.
« Bearbeitet von Foersom am 10.07.2017 07:56. »
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Hi Foersom,

thanks for this update. Very useful tool !

Regards, Armin
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Release 1.2.2 of Geomagnetic Forecast.
- In long outlook max Kp for current day is calculated from both history and forecast data.
- Graphics for forecast (3 days) use 40 wide bars, long outlook (27 days) use 45 narrow bars.

externer Link:
User image


Download GeomagForecast
Mitglied
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Nice Foersom!

very useful tool
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Thanks Foerson. I am using for 4 weeks and works very well!
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Nice Tool,

thank you for sharing.

regards Klaus
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Really useful tool, thanks :D.
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thesmokeshow, Joao Marcelo, CamLifter and skydiver thanks. I hope it is useful, the coming days looks really bad for geomagnetic storm.

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